You need to know this: The Stock markets are now run by algorithms and machines and sentiment analysis models.
These Sentiment models do NOT read a sentence and decide whether it is true. They read who said it, then apply a source authority weight. A head of state carries the highest multiplier in the stack, and no analyst thread will ever match it.
So when the line is that the “Strait is open”, that talks are advancing, that normalization is close, the machine does not verify the claim.
It measures that the claim was made, by whom, and how fast it travelled.
Tens of millions of followers plus news channels pickup registers as breadth. Breadth gets read as confirmation. Crude, tanker rates, war risk premiums and defense names reprice inside seconds.
Verification lands hours later, sometimes days. By then the position is closed and the correction moves nothing.
Markets have always moved on information. What is new is that they now move on attribution, and the machinery, AI and sentiment analysis cannot tell the difference between a fact and a well sourced assertion.
Oil still cannot get through the strait of hormuz but the AI does not consider that, it considers that Trump (the actual President of the United States issued the statement and that statement gets ranked the highest, because all news channels and media channels start to report on it).
Read my latest analysis on how the markets are being manipulated here: https://open.substack.com/pub/ajsignalnotnoise/p/sentiment-analysis-algorithms-are?r=83255l&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Signal, Not Noise!!
원문: https://x.com/aj_geo_analysis/status/2084790292805235124?s=46